1Primorsky Regional Oncological Dispensary, Vladivostok
2Pacific State Medical University, Vladivostok
Zhurman Varvara N. — Cand. of Sci. (Med.), oncologist of the Primorsky Regional Oncological Dispensary
63А Russkaya Str., Vladivostok, 690105, Russian Federation, tel. +7-904-622-25-77, e-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org, ORCID ID: 0000-0002-6927-3336
Abstract. In assessing the health status of the population, an important stage is the prediction of morbidity in order to justify a system of measures for its prevention.
The purpose of the study ― to study and predict the incidence of ovarian cancer in the population of Siberia and the Far East.
Material and methods. To predict the incidence of ovarian cancer in the population of Siberia and the Far East, annual data on the dynamics of the incidence rate for the period from 2007 to 2021, as of the end of the period, were used. The data source was the collection «Malignant tumors in Russia». The prognosis of the incidence of ovarian cancer for the Siberian and Far Eastern Federal Districts as a whole, as well as their constituent regions separately, has been performed. Linear and parabolic trend models were used for forecasting, the parameters of which were estimated using the least squares method, and the exponential smoothing method.
Results. An analysis of the number of cases allowed us to conclude that in general, in two federal districts, the number of cases decreased by 350 people from 2007 to 2021, while in the Siberian Federal District (SFD), the number of cases decreased by 421 people, and in the Far East increased by 71 people. The relative decrease in the number of cases was 15,45% in the two regions as a whole, in the SFD the decrease was 26,63%, while in the Far Eastern Federal District there was a relative increase of 10,38%. It is possible to note a significant variation by region in both the number of cases and changes in their number. However, such changes are caused by the influence of two factors: changes in the level of morbidity of the population and changes in the population that occurred over the 15 analyzed years.
Conclusion. During the study period from 2007 to 2021, the incidence of ovarian cancer in the Siberian and Far Eastern Federal Districts is increasing. Despite the fact that in some regions the incidence, there is an upward trend in the regions as a whole. In this regard, measures are required for timely diagnosis and improvement of oncological care: advanced training of primary care doctors in oncology, an increase in the number of women’s examination rooms, the formation and examination of groups at increased risk of ovarian cancer, taking into account regional risk factors, educational work with the female population.
Key words: ovarian cancer, the prognosis of morbidity, the population of Siberia and the Far East.